Returning Champions

On Saturday, a new Olympic Sprint Champion will be crowned since 2006 Gold medalist Florence Baverel-Robert is retired.  The same goes for the 15K Individual later in the Games. Only Pursuit Gold medalist Kati Wilhelm of Germany and Mass Start Gold medalist Anna Carin Olofsson-Zidek will be defending individual titles this year. Of course, the strong Russian women will also be on hand to try to again take Gold in the Relay.

Contenders

The January World Cup results narrow the list of contenders for the Sprint, Pursuit, Individual and Mass Start medals. A rather small group of women did a good job of jockeying for the top spots and separating themselves from the big pack behind them going into Vancouver.

Three Trends

Three trends appeared last month, involving Sweden, Germany, and France. The Swedish duo of Helena Jonsson and Anna-Carin Olofsson-Zidek left after the Ruhpolding World Cup to prepare for the OWG. However, they both left at the top of their games; with Jonsson taking a win and two seconds in the two Sprints and two Mass Starts she appeared in. Olofsson-Zidek took the Sprint title in Ruhpolding and the two were crucial parts of Sweden’s first-ever World Cup Relay win. Both shot clean in their Ruhpolding victories.

These two women have been consistent all season and are unquestioned medal contenders. After her Mass Start win in Ruhpolding, the normally modest Jonsson commented, “I have been at this level for five weeks and I expect it to continue . . . anyway, I hope so.” Not much can be said beyond that.

German Women

The second trend is the reemergence of the German women led by Magdalena Neuner and Andrea Henkel. Once Neuner and Henkel got past their early/pre-season illnesses and started performing at their “normal” levels, the team as a whole took off. This may have been coincidental, but also could be a case of rising confidence supplied by those two leading by example.

Whatever the case, Neuner was brilliant at Antholz, as was Henkel. At the same time, defending Pursuit gold medalist Wilhelm seemed to turn a corner performance-wise with her first podium of the season in the 15K. Simone Hauswald continued to have solid results with top eight performances. Of course, the two Swedish women were not in Antholz but this does not diminish the performances of this talented group of German women. There is no question that Neuner could add to her “Golden Girl” image in the coming weeks, with the steady Henkel always a contender.

French in Contention

The third part of this pre-Olympic jockeying focuses on the French women. This close-knit group quietly slipped in just behind the Swedish and German women over the past several weeks, looking a bit sharper and more consistent than the Norwegians and Russians in the individual competitions. Sandrine Bailly seems to have regained both her form and confidence, with a third place and a couple of top eight results. At the same time, Sylvie Becaert looked sharp in Antholz and seemed heading toward a February peak. These two along with the young Marie Dorin and Marie Laure Brunet make a formidable third group in the women’s competitions.

Of course at the same time, both the Russian and Norwegian women cannot be overlooked. Svetlana Sleptsova, Olga Zaitseva and Olga Medvedtseva have all shown flashes of brilliance this season so far. The young Sleptsova may not be quite ready to step up to an individual medal in Vancouver, but it would be no surprise to see either Zaitseva or Medvedtseva wearing an individual medal.

The Norwegian star, Tora Berger remains a bit of an enigma. She won in December and was third in the Mass Start in Oberhof. At the same time, her teammate, Ann Kristin Flatland finished third twice and fourth once in January. If she maintains her peak, the 27-year-old could be on the podium.

Two Olgas

Beyond this group, there are many women who could slip onto the podium . . . and no doubt, someone not in the above group will. It could be one of the Semerenko sisters from the Ukraine, Kaisa Makarainen of Finland or a Chinese athlete like Song or Wang. There is also the home-country favorite, Zina Kocher of Canada; the magic of competing on home soil could propel her to a personal best and a medal.

Russia in Relay

Beyond the individual competitions, there is the Relay on February 23. Russia remains the favorite and is defending Olympic Champion. They have both the shooting ability and the experience to run away with this competition. At the same time, the strong German women can challenge the Russians. All four of them will have to be perfect to grab the Gold, but they become the next in line if Russia falters. The battle for the other medal and possibly the Gold or Silver (if disaster strikes Russia and Germany) will probably be between Norway and Sweden. Sweden is probably a stronger team overall with the skiing strength of Olofsson-Zidek and Jonsson’s rock solid shooting. Yet they are not a lock by any means, the Norwegian women definitely looked better in January and improved their chances with the return of Solveig Rogstad and the consistency of Ann Kristin Flatland.

However, Relay and individual medals will not be won easily in any of the women’s competitions. There will be some “I told you so” victories and some surprises. It is the Olympic Games and anything can happen.